Special Session: Subsurface Uncertainty Quantification - Towards stochastic models


Date: 8 December 2020

Time: 16:00 - 18:00

Conveners: Matthew Brzostowski (Schlumberger)
                   Cengiz Esmersoy (Schlumberger)
                   Simone Re (Schlumberger)


Description:

Exploration, drilling, and production all rely on a subsurface model. This model for the most part is obtained from seismic, offset well data, and other geophysical surface measurements in addition to regional geological understanding. 

Experience shows that our subsurface models may have large inaccuracies. A prospect may have a much different size than predicted. Formation tops, faults or salt bodies may show up too early or late compared with the well plan. Predicted geomechanical properties may not agree with what is encountered. All these continue to play a major factor in exploration priorities and risk management. 

In this workshop we will focus on how to quantify these uncertainties, representing the subsurface as a stochastic model rather than a single deterministic model as we typically do today. Understanding these uncertainties and their roots will also help device ways of reducing them. As such, we want to emphasize the seismic and non-seismic tools, well data, applications, and case histories available to the industry.


Programme

Special Session: Subsurface Uncertainty Quantification Part 1 - Towards stochastic models
16:00Introduction
16:05Towards Uncertainty Estimation in Imaging of Low-relief Structures by Bayesian First-arrival Tomography
A. Egorov*, I. Silvestrov, A. Bakulin, P. Golikov (Aramco)
16:25Combining Stochastic Joint Inversion and Machine Learning for Litho-Fluid Facies Classification and Uncertainty Estimation of Well Logs
P. Dell’Aversana* (Eni)
16:45Q&A Session
16:55Break
Special Session: Subsurface Uncertainty Quantification Part 2 - Towards stochastic models
17:00From Data Analytics on Hundreds of Depth Structures to Agile Reservoir Modelling: Some Practical Steps Towards Stochastic Modelling
P. Thomas* & M. Baker (Woodside Energy)
17:20Quantifying Uncertainty Workshop Review
R. Bloor* (Schlumberger)
17:40Q&A Session
17:50Closure remarks
18:00End of programme

*Presenter

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