Uncertainty Quantification and Visualisation in Geological Modelling

17 October 2021
Room: E104
Convener: Denise Maljers (TNO-Geological Survey of the Netherlands)
Jan Stafleu (TNO-Geological Survey of the Netherlands)
Freek Busschers (TNO-Geological Survey of the Netherlands)

Workshop Description

This full-day workshop will cover all aspects of uncertainty related to geological models. Topics include model accuracy, model precision and the visualization and communication of these uncertainties for geological models ranging from detailed reservoir models to regional scale multi-purpose models.

The workshop is aimed at geoscientists and policymakers that deal with uncertainties, by bridging gaps between producing uncertainty information and understanding and using it.

The uncertainty in these models has different sources, ranging from uncertainties related to wells, i.e. metadata and interpretation, seismics, i.e. 2D or 3D, vintage, velocity model, fault model, property modelling, etc. But also even less quantifiable sources as geological knowledge used in the modelling process. Furthermore, what would be the best way to communicate these uncertainties, using statistical measures, diagrams, cross-sections? 

In this workshop we start with a morning session for non-specialists by giving mini-lectures on accuracy, precision and visualization. One of the mini-lectures will be given by Prof. Florian Wellmann Ph.D. from RWTH Aachen University. For the afternoon session we invite all interested in the topic to submit an abstract for an oral presentation to present case-studies showcasing the important role of the quantification of uncertainties or the visualization of uncertainties. 


An illustration of different combinations of accuracy and precision that are also applicable to modelling. The more proximate to the desired answer (bull's eye) means more accurate. Precision describes how proximate the points are situated to each other. 

Workshop Programme

09:15Keynote presenter - Prof. F. Wellmann
10:00Discussion & Questions
10:10Coffee break
10:25Keynote presenter - PhD B. Zehner
11:10Discussion & Questions
11:20Assessing and Communicating Geological Model Uncertainty
A.K. Turner* (Colorado School of Mines) & M. Bianchi (British Geological Survey)
11:40Data Uncertainty Assessment for Optimising Marine Subsurface Applications
L. Kint* (Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences), V. Hademenos (Ghent Univ.), R. De Mol (Ghent Univ.), J. Stafleu (TNO), S. Van Heteren (TNO) & V. Van Lancker (Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences/ Ghent Univ.)
12:00Lunch break
13:00Uncertainty Quantification Enhancement by Combining Data of Varying Accuracy and Precision
J. Chautru* (Geovariances), H. Binet (Geovariances), P. Masoudi (Geovariances), S. Rodriguez (Neptune Energy International) & M. Papouin (Neptune Energy International)
13:20Uncertainty of the Geological Framework Model of the Netherlands
W. Dabekaussen* & H.J. Hummelman (TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands)
13:40Visualisation of Uncertainty in Voxel Models of the Shallow Subsurface of the Netherlands
J. Stafleu*, D. Maljers & J.L. Gunnink (TNO)
14:20Quantification of Effective Permeability Uncertainty Estimation on Geothermal Aquifer Scale
M. Verberne* (TNO/Utrecht Univ.), R. Dalman (TNO), J. Breunese (TNO), B. Van Kempen (TNO) & K. Geel (TNO)
14:40Using Dempster-Shafer Theory to Model Uncertainty
F.M. Miotti* (Independent Senior Consultant)
15:00Coffee break
15:30Realistic Uncertainty Estimation in an Integrated Geostatistical Seismic Property Modeling
A. Moradi Tehrani* (CGG Jason (Netherlands) BV)
15:50Geological Uncertainty Quantification: A futile attempt in the absence of a decision context
B. Jafarizadeh* (Heriot-Watt Univ.)

Subset 3D Geological Modelling for Petroleum Reservoir Estimation
J. Keetley* (Intrepid Geophysics)

16:30Closing Notes
17:00End of Workshop


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